Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
